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11 Jun 2014
After drifting a bit oil price recovered on Wednesday
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Independent Analyst Malcolm Graham-Wood notes that on Tuesday API stats confounded again as crude stocks built by 1.5m barrels against a forecast draw and gasoline stocks fell by 441/- barrels against a guess of a rise of 843/-.
Key quotes
“The trend in gasoline stocks is indicating that demand year on year is quite healthy but as I always say we need a bit more data to get too excited.”
“The Opec summer meeting starts today in Vienna but as I have been saying I am not expecting anything but a roll-over of existing quotas.”
“The hurricane season has started and the prediction from the NOAA ( National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration) is that with a 70% probability they expect between now and November 8-13 named storms of which 3-6 will strengthen to hurricanes and 1-2 will be ‘major’. The NOAA and the EIA have marvellous monitoring of the hurricane season with maps and so on and are worth looking at.”
“The EIA have also published their monthly report for May, in which they estimate US crude production of 8.4m b/d, the highest since March 1988. 2014 is expected to average that number and in 2015 they expect production to be 9.3m b/d the highest since 1972.”
“In natural gas the cold winter has taken its toll and May inventories at 1.5 TCF are 33% below this time last year and 37% below the five year average. Price expectations for this year are $4.74 and for 2015 are $4.49.”
Key quotes
“The trend in gasoline stocks is indicating that demand year on year is quite healthy but as I always say we need a bit more data to get too excited.”
“The Opec summer meeting starts today in Vienna but as I have been saying I am not expecting anything but a roll-over of existing quotas.”
“The hurricane season has started and the prediction from the NOAA ( National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration) is that with a 70% probability they expect between now and November 8-13 named storms of which 3-6 will strengthen to hurricanes and 1-2 will be ‘major’. The NOAA and the EIA have marvellous monitoring of the hurricane season with maps and so on and are worth looking at.”
“The EIA have also published their monthly report for May, in which they estimate US crude production of 8.4m b/d, the highest since March 1988. 2014 is expected to average that number and in 2015 they expect production to be 9.3m b/d the highest since 1972.”
“In natural gas the cold winter has taken its toll and May inventories at 1.5 TCF are 33% below this time last year and 37% below the five year average. Price expectations for this year are $4.74 and for 2015 are $4.49.”