NFP: Downside risk to payrolls - ING

James Knightley, Chief International Economist at ING, says that business surveys suggest that economic uncertainty and trade protectionism is making firms more cautious and less prepared to put money to work.

Key quotes

"Business investment has contracted for the past two quarters and lead surveys suggest that we are likely to experience another contraction in 4Q19. This does not bode well for payrolls growth in the months ahead."

"Moreover, consumer sentiment has been softening of late, led by weakness in the labour components while the GM strike will exacerbate the downside risks to payrolls growth this month – although this should gradually unwind."

"Consumer spending looks set to become a less powerful engine of growth for the US economy."