Fed: 25bp or 50bp? - ING

James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, points out that several analysts have made the case for the Fed going early and aggressively to head off the risks to US growth with a 50bp move on 31 July.

Key Quotes

“Recent firm data has put pay to that view with the implied probability of such action drifting lower over the past couple of weeks. St Louis Fed President James Bullard, who is perceived to be one of the most dovish members of the FOMC having voted for a rate cut in June, has also downplayed that prospect. He said last Friday that “I’d like to go 25bp at the upcoming meeting”. Moreover, we have to remember that at the June FOMC meeting, the median forecast of FOMC members had no rate cuts for this year and only one for next.”

“The newsflow hasn't deteriorated over the intervening period, so based on this we expect just a precautionary 25bp rate cut next Wednesday.”