Forex today: Trade war truce on the cards gets markets excited, a tad prematurely
- Forex today was encouraged by prospects of a trade deal between China and the US on Trump's comments which have geared up the markets for a truce in November.
- Donald Trump has made an overture to Xi Jinping, and the Chinese have hinted at the possibility of making concessions to the Americans.
However, let's just wait and see what comes of the G20 summit and whether Xi can deliver what Trump requires. Meanwhile, in an overview, the analysts at Westpac explained that Sterling slumped on a UK recession warning and the euro was hurt by soft Q3 GDP data but AUD/USD benefited from the rebound in US equities, returning to 0.7100. Commodity prices remained skittish on trade concerns." Today's jam-packed calendar includes Australia Q3 CPI, the BoJ policy decision, China Oct manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Oct CPI, US Q3 employment cost index and Oct ADP private payrolls."
Currency action
EUR/USD remained pressured yet resilient despite the miss in EZ GDP where the third-quarter eurozone GDP arrived at 1.7% year-over-year in the months vs 1.8% and the prior reading of 2.2%. However, the downside GDP surprises to Italy, France widened spreads until German CPI lifted the pair off the lows, an opportunity to fade, although nothing dramatic seen and the pair held above the 14th August and 2018 lows.
As for cable, bulls suddenly look less committed in the face of recessionary prospects and downgraded of rating s in the seen of a hard no deal Brexit, as warned by S&P. GBP/USD drifted lower and lower and came within 40 pips of the 14th Aug and 2018 lows, breaking the 1.127 handle and ending NY -0.65% at 1.2710. The cross was able to muster another bid on the back of sterling weakness and Brexit concerns, popping higher on the S&P warnings over a no deal Brexit and made a two-month high by 0.8939. The cross ended the NY session +0.51% within Tuesday range of between 0.8939-0.8885. However, bulls might be wise to take a cautionary approach at this juncture considering the political angst that also hangs over the pair from mainland politics. USD/JPY, however, was able to see off the risk-off tones and took up the 113 handle in NY trade. The DXY popped the 97 handle and helped the pair along with the risk-off trade unwinding. One might look to bargains in beaten-down risk assets at this juncture also helping the pair higher while US consumer confidence comes in at the best in 18 yrs. AUD/USD was perky yet again and managed to get above the 10 and 21-DMAs with Aussie shorts continuing to be pared back as Trump eases concerns of trade wars suggesting that a good deal will be on the table soon enough, lifting spirits and risk appetite. AUD/USD climbed from 0.7084 and reached a high of 0.7122.
Key notes from US session:
Wall Street ends volatile session with decisive gains
Key events ahead:
Key events risks coming up: All eye son Aussie CPI and China PMIs - Westpac