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1 Apr 2014
Not enough for ECB yet - BAML
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Team Bank of America Merrill Lynch explained that although March euro area inflation was on the low side of economic forecasts (at 0.5% yoy versus market expectations of 0.6%), they do not believe this will be enough to trigger ECB action yet.
Key Quotes
"Although March euro area inflation was on the low side of economic forecasts (at 0.5% yoy versus market expectations of 0.6%), we do not believe this will be enough to trigger ECB action yet as (1) most of the drag is coming from energy and (2) the ECB, like us, expects a rebound in April inflation on the back of disappearing energy drag and a boost from the Easter timing (late April this year, in contrast to March last year, affecting the services component). However, we see two implications from the low March figure: (1) the ECB may try talking the euro down, highlighting the possibility of unconventional policies; and (2) should April inflation disappoint, the ECB will step into unconventional territory. In our view, most data since the last ECB meeting have evolved in line with the ECB March projections, which should not warrant any policy actions yet."
Key Quotes
"Although March euro area inflation was on the low side of economic forecasts (at 0.5% yoy versus market expectations of 0.6%), we do not believe this will be enough to trigger ECB action yet as (1) most of the drag is coming from energy and (2) the ECB, like us, expects a rebound in April inflation on the back of disappearing energy drag and a boost from the Easter timing (late April this year, in contrast to March last year, affecting the services component). However, we see two implications from the low March figure: (1) the ECB may try talking the euro down, highlighting the possibility of unconventional policies; and (2) should April inflation disappoint, the ECB will step into unconventional territory. In our view, most data since the last ECB meeting have evolved in line with the ECB March projections, which should not warrant any policy actions yet."