USD/CHF down move seems terminated – Commerzbank

According to Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, the recent sell off and subsequent rebound in the pair could indicate that the down move could have ended.

Key Quotes

“USD/CHF last week sold off to and recovered from the 50% retracement at .9730. It continues to indicate that this was the end of the down move. It will need to close back above the 20 day ma at .9884 to alleviate downside pressure. Beyond this correction lower we remain positive and look for a challenge to the 1.0039 recent high. It guards 1.0100/08 the April and May highs and the 1.0145 78.6% retracement. Longer term this is considered to be the last defense for the 1.0335 January 2017 high”.

“We remain unable to rule out a slide back to 0.9730, the 50% retracement, but this is less favoured”.

“Only failure at .9705, the mid October low, would target the .9553 June 30 low and potentially the .9421 September low”.