AUD/USD turns positive above 0.76 on USD weakness

After spending the majority of the NA session consolidating below the 0.76 handle, the AUD/USD pair caught a fresh buying wave and recorded modest gains. As of writing, the pair was trading at 0.7607, up 0.07% on the day.

This recent recovery move seems to be a product of the greenback weakness witnessed in the session. Following a failed attempt to reach the 96 mark, the US Dollar Index retraced its daily earnings to turn flat at 95.75. Nevertheless, this last upsurge was not strong enough to assume that the pair is gathering a bullish momentum nor starting a sustained move. The fact that there wasn't a fundamental catalyst supporting that move suggests that we are witnessing technical fluctuations.

Although there are no data left in the remainder of the session, the pair could find a fresh impetus when the Australian Bureau of Statistics releases the Home Loans and Investment Landing for Homes data in the early Asian session. The market expects the Home Loans data to rebound to 1.5% in June after contracting 1.9% in May. A positive reading could help the aussie find some demand as it would signal towards to a recovering real-estate market in the country, which has been a major concern for the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Technical outlook

Technical indicators for the pair support the short-term neutral outlook with the daily RSI moving sideways around the 50 mark. 0.7620 (Fib. 23.6% of May 9/June 30 rise) could be seen as the initial hurdle for the pair ahead of 0.7710 (Jun. 30 high) and 0.7750 (Mar. 21 high). On the downside, supports align at 0.7570 (Fib. 38.2%), 0.7515 (200-DMA) and 0.7460 (Jun. 6 low).

• AUD: Mildly bearish for the week ahead - ING
• AUD/USD room for a test of 0.7640 – UOB