US: ADP employment and ISM manufacturing in the limelight - TDS

Analysts at TDS explains that the ADP jobs figures and ISM manufacturing index will fight for the spotlight in the upcoming US session.

Key Quotes

“Markets are looking for a (very) slight increase in May employment to 180k, but keeping with our below-consensus forecast for payrolls we look for the print to fall modestly short of expectations.”

“The ISM figures should be a bit more constructive though, as we expect the PMI to improve from 54.8 to 55.6 on the back of resurgent new orders. The consensus estimate is for a slight decrease to 54.6, but strong Chicago PMI data argues for an upside surprise.’

“Other notable US releases include the initial jobless claims figures for the week of May 27th, construction spending for April, and vehicle sales for May.”

“Taken as a whole, markets expect tomorrow’s data to confirm the positive narrative around Q2 growth; the consensus for jobless claims (238k) would leave the 4-week moving average unchanged at 235k (a cycle low), while the market forecasts for construction (+0.5% m/m) and vehicle sales (16.9m units) both fit with a narrative of incremental improvement. Lastly, Fed Governor Powell will speak on the normalization of monetary policy at 8:00 AM (ET).”