China: Major changes in its economic team - Rabobank

Michael Every, Head of FMR at Rabobank, notes that the Wall Street Journal reports today that “China Shakes Up Economic Team as Power Shift Looms”; the suggestion is that President Xi Jinping is about to change China’s top banking regulator, the commerce minister, and the top economic planning official for his own technocratic associates.

Key Quotes

“Potentially, this could mean every bit as much a shock for markets as Trump is proving, if we are to infer from the headline that China might finally adopt more restructuring and less reliance on debt. Surely, that would mean a sharp drop in commodity prices, bond yields, Chinese equities, and currencies such as AUD, etc.? Logically, CNY should also fall too, of course.”

“After all, yesterday we heard news that Liaoning province reported a staggering 23% y-o-y drop in nominal GDP in 2016, pointing to the dodginess of Chinese official data before that date and/or the size of the economic disruption that can take place underneath the glossy headline GDP numbers.”