Back
23 Mar 2016
UK inflation below expectations, US manufacturing PMI on firm footing – Deutsche Bank
Research Team at Deutsche Bank, suggests that yesterday in the UK, the main focus was on the February inflation reports.
Key Quotes
“At the headline level the 0.2% mom increase in the CPI in February was a little below expectations, leaving annual inflation at 0.3% yoy. The core CPI was steady at 1.2% yoy, which was in line with market expectations. At the PPI level the 0.2% mom lift in core output prices in February was slightly firmer than expected, and lifted the annual inflation to 0.2% yoy. Meanwhile the ONS house price index rose 7.9% yoy in January (up from 6.7% yoy a month earlier).
In the US the Markit manufacturing PMI edged up 0.1pts to 51.4 in March, thus continuing to paint a slightly firmer reading than the manufacturing ISM. That said, judging by this month’s regional surveys, the manufacturing ISM should post a handy increase in March. The latest survey to point this way is the Richmond Fed’s, with the headline manufacturing index jumping 26pts to +22 – the best reading since April 201. The shipments index surged 38pts to +27 and the new orders index jumped 30pts to +24. Whilst the survey is noisy, these are very significant movements. The employment index, which has remained firm in recent months, rose 2pts to +11.”
Key Quotes
“At the headline level the 0.2% mom increase in the CPI in February was a little below expectations, leaving annual inflation at 0.3% yoy. The core CPI was steady at 1.2% yoy, which was in line with market expectations. At the PPI level the 0.2% mom lift in core output prices in February was slightly firmer than expected, and lifted the annual inflation to 0.2% yoy. Meanwhile the ONS house price index rose 7.9% yoy in January (up from 6.7% yoy a month earlier).
In the US the Markit manufacturing PMI edged up 0.1pts to 51.4 in March, thus continuing to paint a slightly firmer reading than the manufacturing ISM. That said, judging by this month’s regional surveys, the manufacturing ISM should post a handy increase in March. The latest survey to point this way is the Richmond Fed’s, with the headline manufacturing index jumping 26pts to +22 – the best reading since April 201. The shipments index surged 38pts to +27 and the new orders index jumped 30pts to +24. Whilst the survey is noisy, these are very significant movements. The employment index, which has remained firm in recent months, rose 2pts to +11.”