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22 Mar 2016
Demand for safe haven on the rise after Brussels attack - Rabobank
Demand for safe haven such as German bunds and Yen is rising this morning fuelled by explosions at Brussels airport, Rabobank notes.
Key Quotes
So far today EUR/USD is relatively stable after spending Monday in a very narrow range of just 53 points.
Given that the two out of three most volatile sessions so far this year were in March, perhaps the majority of market participants concluded that the best approach would be to take a step back and seriously rethink the outlook for EUR/USD before getting involved again.
Indeed, selling EUR/USD when the ECB revealed its comprehensive package of easing measures on March 10 yielded substantial profits for less than an hour. Shorts were squeezed after Draghi admitted during the press conference that the ECB has no intentions to cut interest rates further.
Being short EUR/USD into the Fed’s meeting last week also backfired. EUR/USD almost revisited the year-to-date high at 1.1376 set in February when the Fed revised its expectations to two from four hikes this year.
In other words, central banks are the source of substantial volatility not only for the EM currencies, but also amongst G10 currencies which tend to be far more stable. “Welcome to our EM world, G10 FX strategists!”
Key Quotes
So far today EUR/USD is relatively stable after spending Monday in a very narrow range of just 53 points.
Given that the two out of three most volatile sessions so far this year were in March, perhaps the majority of market participants concluded that the best approach would be to take a step back and seriously rethink the outlook for EUR/USD before getting involved again.
Indeed, selling EUR/USD when the ECB revealed its comprehensive package of easing measures on March 10 yielded substantial profits for less than an hour. Shorts were squeezed after Draghi admitted during the press conference that the ECB has no intentions to cut interest rates further.
Being short EUR/USD into the Fed’s meeting last week also backfired. EUR/USD almost revisited the year-to-date high at 1.1376 set in February when the Fed revised its expectations to two from four hikes this year.
In other words, central banks are the source of substantial volatility not only for the EM currencies, but also amongst G10 currencies which tend to be far more stable. “Welcome to our EM world, G10 FX strategists!”