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1 Dec 2015
Key events for day ahead - Rabobank
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank explained the key events ahead.
Key Quotes:
"Shortly we will get alternative Chinese PMI data from Caixin, where manufacturing was at 48.3 last month and services at 52.0: will there be a divergence from the official series?
Next is the RBA rate decision. The universal expectation is on hold at 2.00%, but the qualified easing bias is likely to get a lot less qualified and a lot more easy given the plunge in Q3 capex. Indonesia also has November CPI: consensus is a gradual decline to 4.9% y-o-y core and headline, which would be welcome given how sticky inflation has proved to date. Afterwards we get the RBI, who are also seen on hold at 6.75%, especially after the good GDP print.
In Europe the focus is the BOE’s banking stress test, the UK manufacturing PMI, and German unemployment (seen -5K) ahead of Eurozone final manufacturing PMI for November and unemployment for October.
In the US it’s the ISM survey, where risks must be for a sub-50 print, which the Fed’s Evans would then have to explain away as he speaks on the economy. For the Fed, dreams of being Mr. Ten Percent are long gone (we last saw that Fed Funds rate in 1984); they’d be happy with Mr. One Percent right now.
Key Quotes:
"Shortly we will get alternative Chinese PMI data from Caixin, where manufacturing was at 48.3 last month and services at 52.0: will there be a divergence from the official series?
Next is the RBA rate decision. The universal expectation is on hold at 2.00%, but the qualified easing bias is likely to get a lot less qualified and a lot more easy given the plunge in Q3 capex. Indonesia also has November CPI: consensus is a gradual decline to 4.9% y-o-y core and headline, which would be welcome given how sticky inflation has proved to date. Afterwards we get the RBI, who are also seen on hold at 6.75%, especially after the good GDP print.
In Europe the focus is the BOE’s banking stress test, the UK manufacturing PMI, and German unemployment (seen -5K) ahead of Eurozone final manufacturing PMI for November and unemployment for October.
In the US it’s the ISM survey, where risks must be for a sub-50 print, which the Fed’s Evans would then have to explain away as he speaks on the economy. For the Fed, dreams of being Mr. Ten Percent are long gone (we last saw that Fed Funds rate in 1984); they’d be happy with Mr. One Percent right now.