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24 Nov 2015
RBA needs more convincing to act – RBS
FXStreet (Delhi) – In the opinion of Mansoor Mohi-Uddin and Paul Robson, Research Analysts at RBS, the latest RBA policy meeting minutes gave little indication that the central bank wants to act on its easing bias at the next meeting.
Key Quotes
“However, with wage growth in Q3:15 matching the record low recorded in Q2:15, the central bank can’t relax yet. Further weakness in iron ore prices will also be a concern.”
“If the RBA is going to act, it seems sensible to wait for the Q4'15 CPI report that’s released on January 27 before doing so. This means that the next live meeting is the first meeting of 2016 on February 2.”
“If that inflation print shows underlying CPI falling below the RBA 2-3% target band then the central bank may cut rates from 2.00%. But at this stage the central bank likely stays on hold and hopes a Fed hike pushes AUD lower.”
Key Quotes
“However, with wage growth in Q3:15 matching the record low recorded in Q2:15, the central bank can’t relax yet. Further weakness in iron ore prices will also be a concern.”
“If the RBA is going to act, it seems sensible to wait for the Q4'15 CPI report that’s released on January 27 before doing so. This means that the next live meeting is the first meeting of 2016 on February 2.”
“If that inflation print shows underlying CPI falling below the RBA 2-3% target band then the central bank may cut rates from 2.00%. But at this stage the central bank likely stays on hold and hopes a Fed hike pushes AUD lower.”