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18 Nov 2015
FOMC minutes to be more balanced – Deutsche Bank
FXStreet (Delhi) – Craig Nicol, Research Analyst at Deutsche Bank, suggests that the focus of today will be on the FOMC minutes from the October 27th and 28th meeting, due out at 7pm GMT.
Key Quotes
“Remember that the hawkishness of the statement that followed that meeting was the start of a big swing in December liftoff expectations. In fact, prior to that meeting December hike expectations were sitting at around 35%, before rising to 50% or so immediately after the statement.”
“Currently we’re sitting at 66% which is just shy of the 69% high point earlier this month. It’s worth keeping in mind that while the minutes refer to the October meeting, asset prices have certainly moved fairly materially since that meeting.”
“Our colleagues in the US expect the minutes to be more balanced and much less committed to a December hike than what was inferred from the October communiqué. Clearly there is a lot of data left between now and the December 15th/16th meeting (including the November payrolls number) and while the latest employment report was encouraging, our colleagues note that growth and inflation numbers could be slipping given the latest retail sales and import price figures. They expect the probability of a December rate hike to fall closer to 50/50 over the next couple of weeks.”
Key Quotes
“Remember that the hawkishness of the statement that followed that meeting was the start of a big swing in December liftoff expectations. In fact, prior to that meeting December hike expectations were sitting at around 35%, before rising to 50% or so immediately after the statement.”
“Currently we’re sitting at 66% which is just shy of the 69% high point earlier this month. It’s worth keeping in mind that while the minutes refer to the October meeting, asset prices have certainly moved fairly materially since that meeting.”
“Our colleagues in the US expect the minutes to be more balanced and much less committed to a December hike than what was inferred from the October communiqué. Clearly there is a lot of data left between now and the December 15th/16th meeting (including the November payrolls number) and while the latest employment report was encouraging, our colleagues note that growth and inflation numbers could be slipping given the latest retail sales and import price figures. They expect the probability of a December rate hike to fall closer to 50/50 over the next couple of weeks.”