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20 Sep 2013
Flash: RBA likely to ease again; AUD to trade heavy - NAB
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The RBA will be forced to reduce rates again before too long, NAB Strategist Ray Attrill notes.
Key Quotes
"Commodity production is also much less labour intensive than mining construction and we expect the unemployment rate to continue rising for several quarters as the economy struggles to rebalance."
"There is simply not going to be enough demand elsewhere to make up for the growth shortfall related to the peaking in the mining capex boom. We expect continued sub-par growth to bring the RBA back to the easing table one side or other of year-end."
"Direct implications for the AUD are modest given current market pricing, but we do not share current sentiment that sees the RBA tightening as early as 2014 . This should be at least a small weight on the currency."
"All up we still think AUD/USD gets below 0.85 by late next year, but not now as low as 0.80 at least until 2015."
Key Quotes
"Commodity production is also much less labour intensive than mining construction and we expect the unemployment rate to continue rising for several quarters as the economy struggles to rebalance."
"There is simply not going to be enough demand elsewhere to make up for the growth shortfall related to the peaking in the mining capex boom. We expect continued sub-par growth to bring the RBA back to the easing table one side or other of year-end."
"Direct implications for the AUD are modest given current market pricing, but we do not share current sentiment that sees the RBA tightening as early as 2014 . This should be at least a small weight on the currency."
"All up we still think AUD/USD gets below 0.85 by late next year, but not now as low as 0.80 at least until 2015."