Back
23 Apr 2015
Key data ahead: Eurozone PMIs, UK retail sales – Danske
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Chief Analyst at Danske Bank, Allan von Mehren, previews the key data releases ahead in the day – Eurozone PMIs, UK Retail Sales, and US Markit PMI, new home sales and jobless claims.
Key Quotes
“For the euro area we expect PMIs to continue to trend upwards, signalling stronger economic activity. For PMI manufacturing, the order-inventory balance strengthened in March and the weaker currency is still expected to support the manufacturing sector. PMI services has also strengthened in recent months and the strong increase in private consumption supports a further rise.”
“In the US the Markit manufacturing PMI remains at an elevated level and has improved in the past two months contrary to other data related to the manufacturing sector. Hence it could be time for a correction lower in the index but the extent of the decline will be important as it gives an indication of the severity of the soft patch.”
“We expect UK retail sales excluding fuels to have increased 1.3% m/m in March. Private consumption is supported by the very high consumer confidence (currently at the highest level post-crisis), positive real wage growth for the first time since 2009 and increasing employment.”
“Later in the afternoon we will get data for US new home sales and jobless claims. Recent housing data suggest that US housing market activity is picking up. However, after the spike in new home sales in February, we look for a decline of 3% m/m in March, which is still better than consensus expectations.”
“Initial jobless claims will give more information on the state of the labour market in April. The current level of claims suggests a rebound in payrolls in April and if claims continue to trend lower, it will add further confidence to our call that the Fed will hike in September.”
Key Quotes
“For the euro area we expect PMIs to continue to trend upwards, signalling stronger economic activity. For PMI manufacturing, the order-inventory balance strengthened in March and the weaker currency is still expected to support the manufacturing sector. PMI services has also strengthened in recent months and the strong increase in private consumption supports a further rise.”
“In the US the Markit manufacturing PMI remains at an elevated level and has improved in the past two months contrary to other data related to the manufacturing sector. Hence it could be time for a correction lower in the index but the extent of the decline will be important as it gives an indication of the severity of the soft patch.”
“We expect UK retail sales excluding fuels to have increased 1.3% m/m in March. Private consumption is supported by the very high consumer confidence (currently at the highest level post-crisis), positive real wage growth for the first time since 2009 and increasing employment.”
“Later in the afternoon we will get data for US new home sales and jobless claims. Recent housing data suggest that US housing market activity is picking up. However, after the spike in new home sales in February, we look for a decline of 3% m/m in March, which is still better than consensus expectations.”
“Initial jobless claims will give more information on the state of the labour market in April. The current level of claims suggests a rebound in payrolls in April and if claims continue to trend lower, it will add further confidence to our call that the Fed will hike in September.”