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13 Apr 2015
Brazil might see another 50bp hike in April – BBH
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Brown Brothers Harriman Team reviews the key data releases in Brazil ahead, and further anticipates COPOM to hike rates to 13.25% on April 29th.
Key Quotes
“Brazil reports February retail sales Tuesday, expected at -2.1% y/y vs. +0.6% in January.”
“It reports mid-April IPCA inflation on Friday, expected to rise 8.14% y/y vs. 7.90% in mid-March. This is also up from March IPCA reading of 8.1% y/y, which should cement another 50 bp hike from COPOM to 13.25% on April 29.”
“Deepening corruption allegations and more protests will keep political risk high. Taken along with worsening economic fundamentals, we think the real will move back to underperforming within EM, especially with the broad dollar rally back on track.”
Key Quotes
“Brazil reports February retail sales Tuesday, expected at -2.1% y/y vs. +0.6% in January.”
“It reports mid-April IPCA inflation on Friday, expected to rise 8.14% y/y vs. 7.90% in mid-March. This is also up from March IPCA reading of 8.1% y/y, which should cement another 50 bp hike from COPOM to 13.25% on April 29.”
“Deepening corruption allegations and more protests will keep political risk high. Taken along with worsening economic fundamentals, we think the real will move back to underperforming within EM, especially with the broad dollar rally back on track.”