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16 Mar 2015
NZ Q4 GDP expected to increase by 0.7% - BNZ
FXStreet (Bali) - Economists at BNZ expect NZ Q4 GDP to have increased 0.7% (3.3% y/y), adding that growth prospects are looking good for 2015.
Key Quotes
"Last week’s Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) made a couple of things reasonably clear. First, the Reserve Bank is firmly on hold for the foreseeable future."
"Second, barring a global bombshell, the local economic information will need to make a strong case for the Official Cash Rate to deviate from its present 3.50% – upward or downward. RBA-like tweaks of conscience are probably not in the RBNZ’s mind. Rather, we should be looking for the next big thing."
"This would seem to rule out Thursday morning’s December quarter GDP report. While our gut feel is that the economy was growing very well at the end of last year – especially with employment booming – we just haven’t seen the activity data to go big on Q4 GDP. We have settled on 0.7% quarterly growth."
"The market polls are toggling 0.7/0.8% while the RBNZ, as per its March MPS, expects 0.8%. Our 0.7%, from 1.0% in Q3, would see annual growth at 3.3%, from 3.2% in Q3. While not exactly big, it’s still a sturdy expansion we’re describing."
Key Quotes
"Last week’s Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) made a couple of things reasonably clear. First, the Reserve Bank is firmly on hold for the foreseeable future."
"Second, barring a global bombshell, the local economic information will need to make a strong case for the Official Cash Rate to deviate from its present 3.50% – upward or downward. RBA-like tweaks of conscience are probably not in the RBNZ’s mind. Rather, we should be looking for the next big thing."
"This would seem to rule out Thursday morning’s December quarter GDP report. While our gut feel is that the economy was growing very well at the end of last year – especially with employment booming – we just haven’t seen the activity data to go big on Q4 GDP. We have settled on 0.7% quarterly growth."
"The market polls are toggling 0.7/0.8% while the RBNZ, as per its March MPS, expects 0.8%. Our 0.7%, from 1.0% in Q3, would see annual growth at 3.3%, from 3.2% in Q3. While not exactly big, it’s still a sturdy expansion we’re describing."