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30 Dec 2014
Japan: Signs pointing to rapid production recovery – Nomura
FXStreet (Barcelona) - According to the Research Team at Nomura, positive growth in exports will contribute to higher industrial production in Japan, anticipating the Jan 2015 production level to rise to the level of January-March 2014.
Key Quotes
“Key economic indicators for November were announced by the end of last week. Economic conditions were sluggish overall in November, but we see many positive factors that point to improvement. First, while industrial production slipped 0.6% m-m in November, the first decline in three months, this appears to be due largely to a standstill in consumer spending and drop in exports.”
“Real exports recorded robust growth of 3.8% m-m in September and 4.0% in October, but had a modest decline of 2.8% in November. Industrial production and real exports show relatively strong correlation.”
“We think the decline in real exports in November reflects a reaction to growth in September and October, and expect exports to maintain a gradual upward trend as the US economy remains firm.”
“We expect exports to maintain a gradual upward trend, which should also contribute to higher industrial production. If the survey of production forecasts proves accurate, we would expect industrial production in January 2015 to rise to the level of Jan-Mar 2014, when front-loaded demand increased ahead of the consumption tax hike.”
Key Quotes
“Key economic indicators for November were announced by the end of last week. Economic conditions were sluggish overall in November, but we see many positive factors that point to improvement. First, while industrial production slipped 0.6% m-m in November, the first decline in three months, this appears to be due largely to a standstill in consumer spending and drop in exports.”
“Real exports recorded robust growth of 3.8% m-m in September and 4.0% in October, but had a modest decline of 2.8% in November. Industrial production and real exports show relatively strong correlation.”
“We think the decline in real exports in November reflects a reaction to growth in September and October, and expect exports to maintain a gradual upward trend as the US economy remains firm.”
“We expect exports to maintain a gradual upward trend, which should also contribute to higher industrial production. If the survey of production forecasts proves accurate, we would expect industrial production in January 2015 to rise to the level of Jan-Mar 2014, when front-loaded demand increased ahead of the consumption tax hike.”