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10 Nov 2014
Benign US jobs data set scene for quieter FX markets - SG
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Research at Societe Generale sees the current mix of Wage growth and Employment data providing no clue for Fed’s future course of action, calming FX markets.
Key Quotes
“The US jobs data tells us that employment increased by 1.93% in the year to October, the fastest pace since 2006. The household survey measure furthermore, showed an even stronger pace of jobs gains, resulting in a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.8%.”
“Wage growth meanwhile dipped slightly to 2%. The last year has seen the unemployment rate fall steadily while wage growth has tracked sideways. This is a mix of data that provides no resolution over the debate about what the Fed either should or will do next.”
“The US economy remains on track to start 2015 in good shape, growing at a 3%-plus rate at the moment, irrespective of the lack of underlying inflationary pressures in the economy. That should be enough to keep the Fed on track to start hiking rates in mid-2015, and that in turn is the key to a continued steady dollar appreciation.”
“But the alternative view - that the lack of inflation gives the Fed the luxury of being able to delay rate hikes further - found just as much support from the data”
Key Quotes
“The US jobs data tells us that employment increased by 1.93% in the year to October, the fastest pace since 2006. The household survey measure furthermore, showed an even stronger pace of jobs gains, resulting in a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.8%.”
“Wage growth meanwhile dipped slightly to 2%. The last year has seen the unemployment rate fall steadily while wage growth has tracked sideways. This is a mix of data that provides no resolution over the debate about what the Fed either should or will do next.”
“The US economy remains on track to start 2015 in good shape, growing at a 3%-plus rate at the moment, irrespective of the lack of underlying inflationary pressures in the economy. That should be enough to keep the Fed on track to start hiking rates in mid-2015, and that in turn is the key to a continued steady dollar appreciation.”
“But the alternative view - that the lack of inflation gives the Fed the luxury of being able to delay rate hikes further - found just as much support from the data”