USD/IDR to reach 15,000 by end-2024 – ANZ

Economists at ANZ Bank analyze Indian Rupee’s (INR) and Indonesian Rupiah’s (IDR) outlook for the next year.

RBI to keep the Rupee within a narrow trading range

India is benefiting from a structural increase in foreign direct investment inflows. Bond index inclusion from 2024 will see consistent foreign buying of Indian government bonds by asset managers. However, this is unlikely to benefit the INR, as we expect the RBI to absorb those inflows and continue to keep the currency within a narrow trading range.

IDR is among the better performers in the region so far in 2023, thanks to favourable terms of trade. But as the commodity prices for its major exports decline, this will lead to a deterioration in Indonesia’s current account into 2024, which will limit the extent of IDR appreciation. We forecast USD/IDR to reach 15,000 by year-end 2024.